2007 - The unreported Balkan trends

A specialist essay on how the global geopolitical game affected the Balkans, and how what happened here will affect the world.



The year 2007 was an eventful one in the Balkans, though several major trends remained underreported or were simply ignored. The Western media utilized most of its limited capacity to the political dimensions of the future status of Kosovo, choosing to tell and retell a tired story of good vs. bad (i.e., the West vs. Russia and Serbia), barely scratching the surface of what is if not necessarily the most important, at least the most hyped issue in the region.

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The first major event has to be the growing power of Russia in the region and the future way in which this power, even if lessened, will be exerted. Less than a decade ago, the chief successor state to the USSR was grasping for economic stability and political respect on the global stage, with the nadir being reached in March 1999, when it proved powerless to stop NATO?s air war on Yugoslavia over Kosovo. This national humiliation was aggravated when the West failed to grant Russia equal partner status in keeping the peace in post-war Kosovo. Russia could only watch helplessly as half of Kosovo?s Serbian Orthodox population was driven out of the province by Albanian ethnic cleansers, with tacit Western approval.

From the ashes of this defeat arose Vladimir Putin, the ex-KGB officer determined to not let the national interest be trampled on again. In fact, Putin?s opportunity was created by the West in its reckless game in 1999. Until the question of changing Kosovo?s political status arose, Russia had not had a point of strategic leverage in the Balkans. For Putin, simply fomenting stubborn diplomatic opposition while an increasingly frantic West tries to appease the independence-minded Albanians has proven a very cost-effective and powerful strategy to contest Western ambitions and reassert his country?s role as a major power.

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True, the US got its enormous military base in the heart of the Balkans with Camp Bondsteel [at the Kosovo border with Serbia] ? now more than a liability than anything else ? but Russia has made major inroads on Balkan energy acquisitions, as well as buying considerable valuable seaside real estate in Montenegro, that former partner republic with Serbia whose independence, myopic and partisan Western diplomats still today maintain, is yet another well deserved punishment for the Serbs.

Reporting on the changing Russian role in the Balkans becomes even scantier in terms of its relation to the year?s second key trend, and perhaps the most astonishing- the diplomatic triumphs of Greece. A member of both the EU and NATO, Greece is a thoroughly Western country which has however sought to maintain its diverse relationships in nurturing national interests- in the process perhaps becoming guilty of wanting to have its cake and eat it too. While Greece?s major new alliance, with Russia, is more a harmonious convergence of certain interests than a deliberate planned partnership, it has been amply displayed and was singled out in a ?power audit? by the new interventionist think-tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations, some of whose members are famous for their roles in the Kosovo war and peace.

Greece?s convergence of interests with Russia owes primarily to two things; wariness over national security, vis-à-vis perennial enemy Turkey, and its ambition to be a regional player in the energy sector.
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Greece?s second point of panic, though a far less reported one, came with the deepening alliance in the late 1990?s between Turkey and Israel. This first of all involved the transfer of lobbying know-how from the latter to the former in Washington, and soon developed into full-fledged intelligence cooperation, with one jarring result being the Turkish MIT?s kidnapping of Kurdish guerrilla leader Abdullah Ocalan, supposedly under Greek protection, in Nairobi. The Israelis had participated in gathering intelligence. It was a major embarrassment for Athens and a wild success for the Turkish government, by which it effectively ended the Kurdish insurrection, at least for a few years. Israeli-Turkish cooperation would strengthen and, with the victory of George W. Bush in 2000, catapult the neoconservatives, closely affiliated to both Israeli and Turkish lobby groups, into power in Washington.

Greece, like Russia a historic ally of Serbia, had also been less than thrilled about the NATO intervention of 1999, and chose not to participate in NATO air strikes; pivotally, however, it also chose not to veto the operation as Serbia had hoped. Alienated and insulted on all sides, Greece began to develop a parallel security infrastructure to that of NATO, turning to Russian expertise, most significantly in the advanced S-300 and TOR M-1 mobile anti-aircraft system which by virtue of its provenance was not supposed to be acquired by a NATO member. Intense interest in Greece?s air defense capacities from the Turks led, in May 2006, to a brief skirmish between Turkish and Greek fighter jets near the island of Karpathos, leading to the accidental death of a Greek pilot.

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The larger implications of Greece?s diplomatic success in 2004 in lobbying for Cyprus? unconditional entry into the EU ? that is, with its membership not being contingent on the passage of the ?Annan Plan? for unification ? have indeed registered this year, with the EU?s second Greek state ready to uphold Athens? policies within the bloc, particularly on the Kosovo issue, thus relieving Greece of having to take the strongest stance possible against Kosovo independence. So long as Cyprus can be counted on to conduct an identical policy, Greece can desist and so appear more ?accommodating? to Western interests- something that also buys it more political capital to expend on issues which are (erroneously, perhaps) equated with the national interest, such as trying to force the Republic of Macedonia to change its constitutional name.
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The third major underreported issue of the year in the Balkans has been the intrinsic connections and future possibilities of the major international bodies? self-created problems in the region. The issue of Kosovo, Western governments have continuously maintained, is one that cannot be considered a precedent for any other of the numerous self-determination struggles across the globe- even as the representatives of these independence movements continue to remind that no, in fact Kosovo is being perceived as a precedent for them.
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Since the UN could not force the non-warring Greeks and Turks of Cyprus to come together in 2004, it should be no surprise that the UN is now saying it can?t do anything more to solve the Kosovo conundrum, and will hand it off to the EU to figure out. This is another blow to the credibility of the alleged global peacekeeper, and will be perceived by potential secessionists around the world as evidence that the UN has no ability to curtail their future ambitions.

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For 2008 at least, therefore, events in the Balkans should continue to outstrip the control of supranational institutions, and perhaps at an accelerated pace. While this is not necessarily a recipe for war, it does mean that the demonstrated trends in the region towards the bold and unpredictable unilateralism of the pre-WWII alliance systems will intensify. To paraphrase the friendly Chinese curse, we are indeed living in interesting times.

Finally, another emerging trend in the Balkans to watch during 2008 will be the activities of Islamic extremist groups in the region. Although their activities in 2007 were reported mostly in the local medias, the international press took interest as well when Serbian police in March broke up a Wahhabi training camp in the mountains of Novi Pazar, in the southwest Sandzak region; recently, from the other side of the border, Montenegro?s intelligence chief attested that the fundamentalists inhabited camps in Montenegrin Sandzak, while also masquerading their activities in NGOs and youth groups. Also in 2007 Macedonian special police carried out an action against an Albanian irredentist group near the Kosovo border, killing at least one known Islamic extremist in the process. And failed jihadi plots against the US Embassy in Vienna and Ft. Dix in New Jersey both had clear connections with the Balkans. These are only a few of the stories that emerged this year, indicating activity that we believe will increase in the year ahead. The fact that certain Western countries and Israel are starting to take a closer look at the phenomenon of Islamic extremism in the Balkans provides further indications that it remains one of the major, if more underreported, issues affecting regional security.

 

YEEEHAW.

There really IS nothing new under the sun.
[some names and verbs changed, but it still reads like a cognate, all Westerners can understand]:
Big fleets. Use em or lose em.
Rapid transport of people and goods. [rail, air, motor]
Bored generals [use em or lose em].
Thoughtless leaders [yes, I said thoughtless]
[Nationalism] People who believe the bullshit they are told THEIR WHOLE LIVES [PR - AKA Propaganda]
And
[drum roll]
An Itty Bitty Little Schlieffen Plan [and kin].
August 1914 anyone?

 

Anyone who aplaude and cheers to nuclear holocaust leading minkind to neandertal stone ages again sounds insane. Also anyone who uses nuclear power as a tool to tell others what to do for me is not to smart and represents careles behaviour ( He who lives by the sword dies by the sword ).

And ofcoarse biles "Schlieffen Plan" was futile - that was a begining of first world war and attempt of Germany to avoid Maginot Line by going over Belgium in to France.
In 1904 France and Britain signed the Entente Cordiale (friendly understanding). The objective of the alliance was to encourage co-operation against the perceived threat of Germany. Negotiations also began to add Russia to this alliance. As a result of these moves the German military began to fear the possibility of a combined attack from France, Britain and Russia.

Alfred von Schlieffen, German Army Chief of Staff, was given instructions to devise a strategy that would be able to counter a joint attack. In December, 1905, he began circulating what later became known as the Schlieffen Plan. Schlieffen argued that if war took place it was vital that France was speedily defeated. If this happened, Britain and Russia would be unwilling to carry on fighting. Schlieffen calculated that it would take Russia six weeks to organize its large army for an attack on Germany. Therefore, it was vitally important to force France to surrender before Russia was ready to use all its forces.

Schlieffen's plan involved using 90% of Germany's armed forces to attack France. Fearing the French forts on the border with Germany, Schlieffen suggested a scythe-like attack through Holland, Belgium and Luxembourg. The rest of the German Army would be sent to defensive positions in the east to stop the expected Russian advance.

When Helmuth von Moltke replaced Alfred von Schlieffen as German Army Chief of Staff in 1906, he modified the plan by proposing that Holland was not invaded. The main route would now be through the flat plains of Flanders. Moltke argued that Belgium's small army would be unable to stop German forces from quickly entering France. Moltke suggested that 34 divisions should invade Belgium whereas 8 divisions would be enough to stop Russia advancing in the east.

On 2nd August 1914, the Schlieffen Plan was put into operation when the German Army invaded Luxembourg and Belgium. However, the Germans were held up by the Belgian Army and were shocked by the Russian Army's advance into East Prussia. The Germans were also surprised by how quickly the British Expeditionary Force reached France and Belgium.
Source

Just I am not to sure where is connection between Schlieffen Plan and Kosovo?

IMHO It is fascinating that Europe is still not aware of 'Increased Growing of Islamic extremist groups ' by alowing - recognizing - and fostering creation of one more Islamic country (kosovo) at the door of it self (Europe).

 

Wow, that was some Plan:
made in 1905 for a Maginot line built from 1930 to 1940.

 

Who wrote this op-ed and when please?

 

Well, you know, you gotta think AHEAD.

 

Of coarse i knew when was maginot line built. I used that term just to pinpoint always hot border line in between germany and France. What you very well used to throw this topic off the balance, since the lack of adequat arguments regarding to kosovo.

 

Schlieffen was nothing. It could have been anyone's plan.
There are a bunch of 'allies' and 'pact signers' [or whatever the fuck that is called]. There are a bunch of different Peoples who all feel 'a sense of nation stirring in their breasts [nationalists]. There are a bunch of armies who haven't had much to do for some time. There are a bunch of fucked in the head leaders still playing at The Game Of Statecraft when, really what they should be doing is managing roads and rail rights and law-courts: THOUGHTLESS.
I had an eighth grade history teacher who climbed up on his desk to talk.
Twice.
Once was when he went on a rant about South Africa and the other was his talk called something like
The rise of European Nationalism or The Guns Of August
when he had a bur on his ass about entangling relationships, propaganda, nationalism, empire making/defending and
The Festering Boil That Was The Balkans some time prior to and especially circa 1914.

My rant was about nothing being new under the sun and you missed the gist.

 

ah got it, to summarize 'same old shit earth with jungle laws where stronger eats weaker'. Man to a man is Wolf.

 

....
Ah, but this is not wolf on wolf, it is wolves on wolves. I don't believe neighboring wolf packs war. I don't believe schism within a wolf pack results in wars. Just separation... or banishment or a fight [as opposed to war].

We are a bit more like slime mold, lichen or sponge.
Never mind. I stop now.

 

Ok, so you knew. My point was that it seems to me that your are intermixing cause and effect.

Like I said in other posts, it's a mess and there is no one real solution that will be acceptable to all sides.
Where does on draw the line?
How does one repair or rebuild a society whose "problem" is not the passed 10, 20 30, 50, 60 years but the passed 500 or 1,000 years?
Shall we all pay for the sins of our fathers'?

The Serbs are reaping what they sowed.
Just like the other messes: Cryprus, Northern Ireland, East Timor, Israel and Palestine, Malvinas and the Falklands.

To most outsiders that area known as former Yugoslavia has been a fucked-up place since the Romans left.

Blame the Turks, The Catholics, The Albanians, the Commies, the Nazis, the Capitalist, the Imperialists, the counter revolutionaries, the loyalist the royalist...ad nauseum.
It's fucked-up and they are ALL to blame.

And let's face it: All that Kosovo ever was and ever will be is a small footnote in the greater history of this miserable planet.

They should remember a little lesson from Greece, italy, Germany; until they overcame the situation of Nation-City States they were just a collection of special interest families whose only goal was more power and stealing from the next group of myopic greedy little bastards.

Again; every society deserves the government they have.

 

it is so comforting to be objectivising and looking at laws of physics - when it's not happening on your head that much.

i get accused on this, since i came back home

balkanalisys.com
last month

 

whats happening in last decade, with serbian and iraq bombing and everything, and this above - doesnt it remind you of how the League of Nations ended in the 30s?

 

League of Nations was / United Nations is a bunch of useless, spineless clowns. Can't think of anything worth mentioning that the U.N. ever got accomplished, besides wasting money, that is.

 

amen somotebee

 

WOW!
You mean the world is run by the super rich and powerful special interests and that those families and cabals can over power and redirect any institution no matter how democratic partly because of the basic greed and self interest inherent in all human beings?

 

Thank you for the reference, i shall be doing more reading.

Yes, it's always easier to see things and make "gross generalization" from farther away.

It's also easier to see and make objective rather than a subjective commentary.
Sometimes it may even seem apathetic and I apologize for that.

 

lol, gross generalizations

 

it must really suck to be you

Can't read the second line while having your mouth full and eyes covered with pubic hair.

Too bad.

 

Like you haven't figured out that by your self yet?
Look at example of Kosovo who self declared independence against any international law, and furthermore most of western countries recognized them... what world we are living in now...