Czechoslovakia in 1930s. You had a large and motivated army with tanks and planes, you've prepared a lot of fortifications at the western border. Then you were pushed to give up Sudet region. With all fortifications. But it's not a problem cause Germans promise you do not attack. Or not? NATO already got countries of Warsaw pact. NATO already got Baltic states which was a part of the USSR (by the way - the USSR gave them "country" status). NATO prepared to land on Crimea and ever not tried to hide it. Should we wait until they place a military base in every ex-USSR republic?
@mcgru- Let me ask you a simple question: Did you stop beating up your mother yet? Logic says, that there are two ways to answer that question. One, positive - where mcgru- states that he already stopped beating his mother. The other, negative - where mcgru- negates stopping beating his mother, yet. There is no other way to answer this question in a logically correct way. Does it imply that mcgru- is either beating his mother, or just stopped doing that? No. Why's that? Because the question itself is logically flawed. It is based on a false (I hope) premises, that mcgru- beats up his mother. So is your so called "logic" my Russian friends. You made false presumptions (premises) at the beginning of your reasoning.
No, of cause. They have hundreds of thousands large army with a lot of heavy equpement. And they are actually pretty steadfast in some places. But still they are completely outclassed. And losing heavy weaponry and ground fast. Sadly their defences are often based around civilian apartments or kindergartens. Which pretty much limits offensive capabilities of Russian army. That tactic is pretty understandable (everyone wants to live), but nevertheless pretty cruel to their own people and underhanded from our point of view. That's actually a pretty though answer to explain for someone living outside of Russia. And a large one. I'll try to give out very-very quick summary: NATO was always a military alliance meant built primarily against USSR and Russia. And we checked: it does not change. Tried to be friendly and even join NATO. We were denied. And with passing time, it was only increasing amount of arrogance and hostility from NATO. Nothing new here. Europe try to "eradicate Russian barbarians/Üntermenschen" +/- every 100 years. USA is only doing what they always do: Divide and conquer. Incite war and conflicts. European nations will kill each other. USA will prosper. USA rivals will be weakened. Nothing could save current Ukraine statehood. Not even WW3. Let alone some more sanctions. It is already stated by Putin. 1. Denazification. 2. Demilitarization 3. No NATO or NATO forces in Ukraine. Neutral status. 4. Crimea is recognized as Russian. 5. Lugansk and Donetsk republics are recognized as independent. Russia has enough forces for that. We prefer they surrender themselves, but if not - it's their choice. In only 3 weeks Russain army is captured land size larger than Great Britain. We do not want to rush, though. That's will only increase casualties. I'll ask you too: - What about nuclear war? What if Biden will start usind nuclear weapons against cities? It will be OK to You? Till this day, the only country in the world which used nuclear bombs against cities is USA. I'll repeat myself: You're welcome.
The Easter Bunny operates earlier this year. And it has huge presents for Russian families throughout the entire countries. Thousands of bags marked Груз 200 that is. These are your "advances", "groundbreaking attacks", and "territorial gains". 3 weeks into the war you haven't even captured larger cities (save for Kherson). And to paraphrase a song by Iron Maiden: "and in the field they give you hell".
Let's agree that I'm not campaigning for you here. I am not an intelligence officer or a member of the military staff. Everything is just my assumptions based on the information that I personally regard as reliable. It depends on what we mean by the Ukrainian army. If those parts that are on the line of contact with the unrecognized republics, then no. If those units of the army and the national guard which in other regions of Ukraine, then yes. Because the mass retreat to the cities under cover of civilian population is not very similar to the organized defense of the regular army. Well, in my personal opinion. The defense of Moscow and Leningrad took place on the outskirts of the cities, and not on Tverskaya Street or Nevsky Prospekt. Perhaps my thinking is somewhat retrograde and modern warfare implies just such tactics ... Honestly, I don’t know. As far as I can tell, Russian army does not have the task of storming large cities. Simply because these are will be huge losses on the attackers side and among the civilian population. Mariupol is an exception, because it is in it that the main forces of the nationalist battalion "Azov" are located. These, when they despair, will provide mountains of corpses among the townspeople without a direct assault. As for the Ukrainian army group on the line of contact with the unrecognized Republics. According to the information that I have, there are about 50,000 servicemen, possibly more. In positions that they have consolidated over the years and are well echeloned. It is obvious that no one was going to attack them by direct attack in the front. What for? As well as I doubt that the tasks of our army include sending 50 thousand coffins to Ukrainian families with best wishes. It's not in our interest. Therefore, they outflanked and given the opportunity to withdraw or lay down their arms. If they do not take advantage of this opportunity, then after the arrival of reinforcements from our side, they will be surrounded and the decision-making process will be accelerated. Or do you seriously doubt that Russia does not have enough firepower to raze this entire group to the ground? But why do we need it? To be known to the whole world as bloodthirsty killers who bombed the defenseless Ukrainian military on the Donbas? In addition, look at the building density in Ukraine. It will be necessary to raze everything to the ground with a huge number of villages and small towns. Russia has so far used a very modest part of its manpower. It is assumed that there are from 150 to 200 thousand military personnel of the Russian army (these are the maximum estimates that I have met so far). This is very little to establish control over a country with size like Ukraine. I don't know if there is an equivalent in English to our expression "раз на раз", pure 1 on 1 combat. Blitzkrieg was not meant here. Sorry, I'll split my answer into several steps. Is my bad English understandable?
...and we strongly regret that decision. Also we didnt fight back in 1968. So we are superjealous on Ukranians, who fight back. Mostly true, but NATO never thought about land on Crimea. That point is not a true at all. NATO has not capatibility to do so. But thats the point, why Russia is so sensitive about military bases in another countries? I dont get it.
Not just bases, but bases close to our border. It shortens the time of rocket flight to strategic points. Russia doesn't care about the NATO base in Germany, for example.
Around 2014 there was information that new junta in Ukraine plan to expel Russian navy from it's centuries old base of Sevastopol and replace it with NATO.
Untrue, but of course there is a large propaganda about brave ukranians, russian loses and fails, etc. but... There are around 500 000 ukranians working (legally or illegaly) in czech rep. I live with ukranian family who fled. I was there in Ukraine few days after invasion to help families of our coworkers to evacuate. There is a strong human bond in every company or city with ukranian workers... and suddenly, when you are planning to take another family you hear that there is no need to evacuation, because the wife of your ukranian coleague was killed in Kiev and you know him. You are underestimating the human bond between Poland, Slovakia, Czech rep and Ukraine. We know these people. My friend have a fiance in Kiev. We mostly know russians as an rich (and mostly arrogant) turists and sometimes chiefs of companies, but not very personally. Another point. There is a big difference when you are sending troops to Afganistan or Syria to low level conflict for oil? Gas? Power? But Russia deploy large scale military operations right in the border with Slovakia. We are scared and we are angry. Now we are feel cornered and we know that there is a real possibility that we will must to fight to protect for example baltic countries (NATO defend pact). We know that we must maximalize our effor to make Ukraine the blood bath for Russian soldiers. So same as for You, are are cornered.
History knows no "if"... And my personal point of view is - in 1968 CS had no any chances to fight back, had no allies, it was just a provocation of West. Just to check if USSR and Warsaw pact is strong enough. The facts shows it does.
Before crisis and pandemia - ~150.000 registered (data from "Cizinecka policie"). I have no data about illegal workers, but not so much last time. Just try to remember when Russia tried to conquest Europe on its own? Every time we visit Europe was a war not started by Russia, or some allied operations. And every time Russia has returned back. May be it sound rude, but Russia don't give a fuck about Europe. Every time Russia increased her territory was a result of a war we didn't start.
Well, well, well. Bloody Russians are very active on international topics, trying to justify their agressiin and war crimes. Fucking bastards.
Let me say something about NATO in these days. NATO is UNABLE to comply large scale attack operation against Russia. The main forces are USA and USA dont give a f*ck about Europe. Your generals and maily Putin know that very well, because there were some military exchanges of information and personel. Russians were able to conduct surveys in NATO countries and vice versa. They know how relatively small army we have. Why do you think NATO is not fighting in this conflict? Why there is no NO-FLY zone over Ukraine? So IF someone of your government is telling You that NATO is able to conduct attack operation against Russia he is not mistaken, he is lying and I can prove it. Why the hell would anybody wants to erradicate russians? There is no point at this. Why would west even try to conquer/erradicate Russia. What we could possibly gain? I dont like americans also (no hard feeling my american friends/familly ). Can You post me some sources of Your point of view about military progress on Ukraine? I use this: https://liveuamap.com/ru ...and I can say aour army stuck on place for more than week. It doesnt seem to me as You are winning. But strategic perspective is another question, we can discuss it later.
Russia has no problems with Ukrainians, several millions of them are living and working in Russia. And Russia had no serious problems with Ukraine before 2004 and "Orange Revolution". We were the same nation for centuries. The only problem is russophobic leaders and their politics. Unfortunately since 2004 and later 2014 they raised a generation of young people and brainwashed them against Russia
As I said, it is nonsense. Why we need Sevastopol (from NATO perspective) if there is a Turkey? Actually You have direct borders with USA. Also via north pole it is quite straight and even when you measure the distance from Moscow the baltic states are already in NATO and much closer to Russian main cities. But the concept, which was right in 60s, is obsolete in 21st century. In 60s You need large ammount of time to make nuclear response (recognize nuclear attack and fire own missiles, send aircrafts, etc.). Now it doesnt make sense because with satellite imagery You know in minutes if you are target of nuclear attack. Few minutes more or less doesnt make difference. You are really afraid of possible nuclear attack from these european countries?
Give it few years. This will change. As always (WW1, WW2) USA will mainly supply and encourage warring factions. They do not need one side to win fast and easy. Better if both sides are exhausted before the USA intervene and gain all the profits. Yes. Not right now. But NATO east buildup is happens steadily for last 25 years. No one say so. But we know it will be so in a few years. Ground is still being prepared for WW3. Ask yourself. Europe still try to do it time and time again. Nothing, but USA got more power after each world war. And EU for is now not a lot more than a USA puppet. I have no problems with American citizens. But their politics are totally hostile to us. https://t.me/boris_rozhin/33923 No point to rush. Should clear currently captured area from Ukrainian military in pockets first.
